The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially began on 1st June, has yet to see a single named storm as of 20 June. While this slow start may feel unusual to some, climatologists note that it aligns closely with the long-term 30-year average—where the first storm typically forms around 20th June.
Despite the current lull, data from 1991 to 2020 shows the mean date for the first tropical storm is 20 June. In more recent decades, around 18 out of 20 seasons saw a storm by this point in the year. This suggests the present inactivity reflects a return to historical norms rather than a sign of a weak season.
Factors such as dry Saharan dust and persistent wind shear are suppressing storm formation currently, reinforcing the season’s delayed start. Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific has seen five named storms—including Hurricane Erick in Mexico—highlighting the contrasting activity between basins.
Experts emphasise that early-season quiet does not predict overall activity. Most storm formation and major hurricanes typically occur between mid‑August and October. Current forecasts from NOAA and CSU still point to an above-average season, with 13–19 named storms expected—driven by warm water temperatures and low wind shear.
Forecasters are keeping a close eye on a low-pressure system east of Bermuda, which currently has only a 20 percent chance of developing into Tropical Storm Andrea. Conditions remain unfavourable for now, though Atlantic development is anticipated to increase by July.
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