By Eboni Brandon
United States President Donald Trump’s latest legislative push—dubbed by the President himself as the “big beautiful bill”—has triggered a storm of controversy across political and economic spheres, with critics warning of unprecedented fiscal consequences, significant reductions to Medicaid, and regressive tax policies favouring the wealthy.
Despite claims from the White House that the bill will reduce the national deficit by more than USD $2 trillion, independent analysis from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Tax Foundation, and leading economists paint a vastly different picture. The CBO projects that the bill will, in fact, increase the federal deficit by USD $3.3 trillion over the next decade due to sweeping tax cuts that overshadow proposed spending reductions.
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, has added his voice to the chorus of dissent, calling the legislation an “insane spending bill” and threatening to form a new political party if it passes. “Lawmakers are voting for the biggest debt increase in history,” Musk said on X, formerly Twitter, aligning with fiscal conservatives alarmed by what they consider unsustainable borrowing.
The United States national debt currently stands at approximately USD $36 trillion. With roughly USD $29 trillion owed to investors globally, concerns are growing that the bill’s impact could lead to higher interest rates across the board—affecting mortgages, consumer loans, and business investments.
While proponents argue that the tax cuts will stimulate economic growth, the Tax Foundation has concluded that although the bill may increase GDP by around 1% over the next decade, it would come at the cost of a ballooning deficit—projected to rise by USD $3.6 trillion during the same period. Economists like Bobby Kogan of the Center for American Progress argue the growth will be “short-lived,” ultimately dragging down the economy in the long term.
Healthcare is another major battleground in the bill’s trajectory. President Trump has insisted that Medicaid—the vital healthcare programme serving over 70 million low-income Americans—will remain untouched. “We’re cutting USD $1.7 trillion in this bill and you’re not going to feel any of it. Your Medicaid is left alone,” Trump claimed last week.
However, independent research tells a different story. The Kaiser Family Foundation estimates the bill will slash USD $1 trillion from future Medicaid spending over ten years. Moreover, the CBO warns that nearly 12 million people could lose coverage by 2034. While the White House contends that the bill targets “illegal aliens” and aims to “protect Medicaid for the truly vulnerable,” only about 1.4 million of those at risk of losing coverage fall into the category of undocumented immigrants.
Tax policy is equally contentious. Trump has stated that failing to pass the bill would result in a 68% tax hike for Americans—though no evidence has been provided to support this figure. Experts from the Tax Policy Center estimate that without an extension of the 2017 Trump-era tax cuts, the average increase would be about 7.5%, affecting 60% of taxpayers.
Critically, the tax benefits within the new bill disproportionately favour the wealthy. Analysts report that nearly 60% of the benefits would accrue to individuals earning over USD $217,000 annually. “There is no question that this bill will result in a massive redistribution from the poorest to the richest,” said Elena Patel, tax policy expert and professor at the University of Utah.
As the bill moves through Congress, it remains mired in partisan deadlock, with resistance not only from Democrats but also from some fiscally conservative Republicans. The long-term economic implications—both for the deficit and for social equity—are likely to remain central issues in the upcoming election cycle.
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