The United States is closely monitoring Guyana’s elections Monday, viewing the outcome as pivotal for regional stability and the management of one of the world’s fastest-growing oil economies. Despite being one of South America’s smallest nations, Guyana’s burgeoning oil production and strategic resources have made it a focal point for Washington as the country elects its next president, members of parliament, and regional councils.
Current President Irfaan Ali, leader of the People’s Progressive Party/Civic, seeks re-election, while main contenders include Aubrey Norton of the People’s National Congress Reform party and Azurddin Mohamed of the new We Invest in the Nation (WIN) party. Mohamed was sanctioned by the US Treasury in 2024 for alleged attempts to exploit Guyana’s underdeveloped gold sector for personal gain, highlighting the Washington’s keen scrutiny of candidates’ credibility and alignment with American interests.
Oil, discovered in 2015 by ExxonMobil, has transformed Guyana’s economy. The country now produces around 650,000 barrels daily, positioning it as a potential global energy leader by 2027. According to the World Bank, Guyana’s GDP surged 63.3% in 2022 and 33.8% in 2023, with 2024 marking a fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth. US analysts view these elections as a test of whether Guyana can manage sudden wealth with transparency and stability.
“Guyana’s ability to produce oil sustainably will determine not only its economic trajectory but also its role in the regional and global balance of power,” said Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Berg added that the US needs a strong partner in Guyana to safeguard both economic and security interests, particularly in light of tensions with Venezuela over the oil-rich Essequibo region.
Venezuela has long disputed the sovereignty of Essequibo, home to major oil fields and gold reserves, claiming two-thirds of Guyana’s territory. The issue has intensified with Venezuela’s recent presentation of “additional evidence” to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), though Caracas does not recognise the court’s authority. Analysts warn that any destabilisation in Guyana could provide opportunities for Venezuelan assertiveness, making US support for Guyana crucial.
Washington has already signalled its commitment through military deployments in Caribbean waters and joint exercises with Guyanese forces. In August, Trinidad and Tobago also expressed support for potential US intervention in the event of a Venezuelan threat. “A strong alliance with the US guarantees that the status quo is maintained and prevents adventurous moves from Maduro’s government,” Berg said.
The elections also carry significance in the broader US-China rivalry. While American firms dominate oil extraction, China has invested in infrastructure projects such as the new Demerara River bridge. Analysts note that Guyana is carefully balancing its relations with both superpowers. “Guyana will likely align with each country depending on the project, maximising economic benefits while safeguarding sovereignty,” said Berg.
Political stability is another key concern. The previous election cycle sparked a prolonged dispute, heightening ethnic and social tensions. Benjamin Gedan, former director for South America at the US National Security Council, highlighted the risks of renewed social unrest and its potential to interrupt Guyana’s development. “Managing this boom responsibly is essential. A transparent election could set a model for the region, proving that sudden oil wealth does not erode democracy,” said Imdat Oner, a political analyst at Florida International University.
As voters head to the polls, the United States is watching closely. Beyond economics, the elections represent a test of governance, institutional strength, and Guyana’s ability to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape while harnessing its oil wealth for long-term growth and stability.
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