The Atlantic hurricane season is entering its peak, and forecasters warn that activity is likely to ramp up in the coming weeks, despite the current lull in tropical cyclone development. The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season falls on 10th September, with most activity historically occurring between mid-August and mid-October. Experts emphasise that the majority of tropical cyclones form during this window, making it a critical period for vigilance.
While no tropical cyclone development is anticipated in the Atlantic Basin over the next week, meteorologists point to a likely surge in storms later this month. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an above-normal season, with 13 to 18 named storms expected. Of these, five to nine could strengthen into hurricanes, and two to five may reach major hurricane status, with winds exceeding 111 mph.
Colorado State University’s tropical weather experts support this outlook, highlighting that wind patterns and upper atmospheric conditions are shifting to favour storm formation. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center also notes that environmental factors over the central Atlantic are becoming increasingly favourable for cyclone activity as September progresses.
So far this season, six named storms have formed, with Hurricane Erin standing out as the only major hurricane to date. Erin reached Category 5 strength in mid-August, causing dangerous surf and rip currents across the northeastern Caribbean and the eastern United States coastline but remaining offshore. Tropical Storm Chantal also made landfall in South Carolina in early July.
With two months of the season remaining, the next named storm will be called Gabrielle. Forecasters stress that the quiet start should not be mistaken for a safe season, as the latter half of September and October could still bring significant storms.
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