Tropical Storm Jerry continues its approach towards the northern Caribbean, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall, rough seas, and strong gusty winds over the next few days. Meteorologists say the system, currently struggling to intensify due to wind shear and dry air, could still strengthen slightly as it moves closer to the northeastern Caribbean, including St. Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, and the Virgin Islands.
As of Wednesday, Jerry remains a tropical storm, but forecasters warn that tropical storm conditions — including wind gusts of up to 80 kilometres per hour and intense rainbands — may affect parts of the region by late Thursday into Friday. Rainfall could total between 100 and 150 millimetres in some areas, raising the risk of flash flooding, especially across hilly terrain.
Weather models show the system’s core staying just northeast of the Leeward Islands; however, even a slight shift southward could bring Jerry’s strongest winds and rainbands closer to populated areas. The European and American models remain consistent in predicting that Jerry will likely remain a tropical storm as it passes the region, though some forecasts hint at brief hurricane-strength winds near the storm’s centre.
Meteorologists have placed several islands in the northeastern Caribbean, including St. Kitts and Nevis, under tropical storm watches. These are likely to be upgraded to warnings for several islands over the next 24 hours. Residents of St. Kitts and Nevis are advised to prepare for periods of heavy rain, choppy seas, and possible flooding in low-lying areas. Small craft operators are also urged to remain in port as seas are expected to become increasingly hazardous.
The current instability across the Caribbean atmosphere has already triggered severe weather elsewhere. On Tuesday, 7th October, a tornado ripped through parts of Trinidad, damaging homes and uprooting trees. Meteorologists warn that similar isolated tornadoes or waterspouts could occur across other Caribbean territories as the region remains under a highly dynamic weather pattern.
While Jerry is expected to move northward and away from the islands by the weekend, lingering moisture could sustain rainfall across parts of the northeastern Caribbean through Saturday. Authorities across the region continue to monitor the system closely, urging residents to remain alert and follow official weather bulletins.
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