AGUA CALIENTE, Venezuela (AP) — At a crossroads not far from a gas station overgrown with weeds, young men and women in faded green fatigues stop vehicles returning from a rally for opponents of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, ask passengers for their identifications, and inspect their cars, trucks and motorcycles.
Such checkpoints have proliferated across the country’s vast tropical plains, forested highlands and beachfronts in the run-up to Sunday’s presidential election, aiming to intimidate and occasionally detain government critics. They often involve a request for a ride, bananas or “collaboration” — Venezuela’s euphemism for a small bribe.
But the power play frequently falls flat. When their superiors slip away from the scorching sun, the grunts betray their displeasure with Maduro and openness to a new commander in chief.
“Did the lady arrive? Were there a lot people?” one giddy soldier asks about opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.
“We wanted to watch, but there is no Wi-Fi here,” whispers another.
Since taking power in 2013, Maduro hasn’t hesitated to deploy troops to crush protests while rewarding senior officers with lucrative government jobs and control of key industries. But days away from a hotly disputed vote that threatens Maduro’s hold on power, the self-proclaimed socialist is working harder than ever to shore up the loyalty of the armed forces — the traditional arbiter of political disputes in Venezuela — and keep top commanders in line.
In recent days, the president has appeared on state TV attending a graduation ceremony for 25,000 police officers, praising them as the first line of defense against what he called attempts by rightwing hardliners to provoke a tragedy. He also promoted dozens of officers and bestowed a new title on his longtime defense minister, Vladimir Padrino López: ”General of the Sovereign People.”
“The destiny of Venezuela depends on our victory,” Maduro said at a rally this month. “If we want to avoid a bloodbath, or a fratricidal civil war triggered by the fascists, then we must guarantee the biggest electoral victory ever.”
The top brass has stood fast with Maduro, delving deep into political mudslinging instead of sticking to its traditional role safeguarding the vote.
Gen. Domingo Hernández Lárez, the head of the joint chiefs of staff, posted a photo on social media purportedly showing Machado speaking in front of a white board scribbled with notes calling for the “elimination” of the armed forces. Machado, who was banned from running and is backing stand-in candidate Edmundo Gonzalez, has called the accusation “fake news.” A media watchdog group said the image was manipulated.
Maduro’s opponents have long struggled to win over doubters in the military.
The armed forces have been an integral part of Maduro’s grip on power ever since his mentor and predecessor, former tank commander Hugo Chávez, led an uprising against an unpopular austerity government in 1992. When Chavez was elected president in 1998, he purged officers indoctrinated in the U.S. to fight communism, placed fellow coup plotters in top positions and poured the country’s oil wealth into fighter jets and expensive military hardware.
Maduro, without Chávez’s military pedigree, has nonetheless empowered his own crop of uniformed allies, many of whom, like the president, face allegations of corruption and human rights abuses.
The National Guard has also quietly imported anti-riot gear and refurbished armored vehicles that could be used to quell protests, according to retired Gen. Rodolfo Camacho, a Maduro opponent who writes a report on military affairs.
Meanwhile, the government hasn’t hesitated to punish soldiers who step out of line. Members of the armed forces make up about half of the 301 Maduro opponents currently imprisoned and classified as political prisoners by Caracas-based legal assistance cooperative Foro Penal.
The Defense Ministry did not respond to an emailed request for comment.
While nobody is predicting a barracks revolt, discontent among the rank and file is widespread, said William Brownfield, a former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela and senior fellow at the Wilson Center in Washington.
As Venezuela’s economy has gone off the rails — shrinking 71% between 2012 and 2020, while inflation topped 130,000% — the cash bonuses and perks awarded to military families have lost much of their luster. Desertion has increased among the roughly 150,000 members of the military, as many join the millions of Venezuelans fleeing the country rather than defend a government they no longer support.
“The conscripts, enlisted personnel, and low-ranking officers are not raking in the cash,” said Brownfield. “Many probably have relatives who have fled Venezuela and they are susceptible to the opposition’s message.”
Gen. Manuel Cristopher Figuera, a former spy chief, said any movement to defy Maduro would come from the bottom up in the form of a refusal to repress protesters. Opposition leaders have vowed to “defend” their vote in the event of any tampering, and given the recent history of political bloodshed, many Venezuelans are bracing for demonstrations after the election.
“They aren’t going to rebel, but they aren’t going to obey orders either,” said Figuera, who fled the country in 2019 after leading a failed attempt to remove Maduro.
Some believe Maduro can’t rely as confidently on his allies and see Padrino as a potential white knight. The 61-year-old is one of the last Venezuelan officers trained in the U.S. — he studied psychological operations at the School of the Americas at Fort Benning, Georgia — before Chavez shifted Venezuela’s alliances toward Russia, China and Iran.
In 2015, when the opposition swept parliamentary elections by a landslide, Padrino appeared on state TV flanked by his top command recognizing the results even before Maduro acknowledged defeat.
And Venezuela’s top brass has turned on a dime before, most remarkably in 1958, when it ousted President Marcos Perez Jimenez after being complicit in his dictatorship for years.
“If there’s an avalanche of people in the streets supporting the opposition, there’s going to be a lot of pressure on Padrino,” said Camacho, who worked alongside the defense minister before being charged with plotting against Maduro’s government and fleeing Venezuela. “He is the one small hope I have left.”
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