Tropical Storm Erin, currently located about 1,544 miles east of Antigua and Barbuda, is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Friday as it moves rapidly westwards at 22 mph. The system is expected to pass north of the Leeward Islands, but meteorologists caution that a slight southerly shift could bring its core dangerously close to the north-east Caribbean late Friday into Saturday.
While the current track keeps the centre of Erin between 250 and 300 miles north of the islands, its large size means St. Kitts and Nevis could experience outer rainbands, gusty winds, and increased seas over the weekend. According to meteorological guidance, the probability of storm-force winds reaching the area has risen to 33 percent.
“Conditions are conducive for strengthening once this moves to our north,” the US-based National Hurricane Center explained on Wednesday morning. “This will be a close approach, so we will at least get some outer rainbands moving in. Most of us can handle that, but flooding is possible in some areas.”
The St. Kitts and Nevis Meteorological Service has not yet issued any tropical cyclone alerts, watches, or warnings for the Federation, but officials warn this could change as early as today. Residents are urged to monitor updates and review hurricane preparedness plans.
Forecast models, including the European and American systems, agree on Erin’s short-term track — a westward movement before curving to the west-northwest over the weekend. This trajectory keeps the heaviest weather north of St. Kitts and Nevis but still allows for feeder bands to deliver intermittent downpours and gusty conditions from Friday through Sunday. Seas are also expected to build from 5 feet midweek to around 8 feet by Saturday.
Local 4-Day Forecast for St. Kitts and Nevis (as of 13th August, 2025):
- Wednesday: 20% chance of showers, high 35°C (95°F), low 25°C (77°F), ENE winds 6–17 mph, seas 5 ft.
- Thursday: 40% chance of showers, high 34°C (93°F), low 24°C (75°F), ENE winds 7–18 mph, seas 5 ft.
- Friday: 70% chance of showers, high 32°C (90°F), low 22°C (72°F), N winds 12–23 mph, seas 6 ft.
- Saturday: 80% chance of showers, high 32°C (90°F), low 22°C (72°F), SW winds 12–23 mph, seas 8 ft.
With Erin likely to intensify into a strong hurricane as it moves into warmer waters, regional disaster management agencies are advising the public to remain vigilant throughout the remainder of the hurricane season.
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