France has entered a period of renewed political uncertainty after Prime Minister François Bayrou’s government collapsed on Monday when the National Assembly passed a vote of no confidence, deepening the crisis for President Emmanuel Macron. The fall of Bayrou’s government marks yet another episode of instability, with France now preparing for its fifth prime minister in less than two years.
The no-confidence vote was driven by opposition to Bayrou’s controversial budget plan, which aimed to cut €44 billion ($52 billion) in spending to address the country’s swelling fiscal deficit. Bayrou, a 74-year-old political veteran, called the vote himself in an attempt to pressure lawmakers into supporting the austerity measures. Instead, lawmakers across the political spectrum united to reject his proposals, condemning his nine-month premiership to an early end.
Bayrou will remain as caretaker prime minister until President Macron appoints a successor, however, Macron faces limited options. He can attempt to name another centrist premier, call snap parliamentary elections, or risk governing through continued stalemate. With polls showing just 15 percent of the electorate expressing confidence in Macron, the president’s authority is under mounting pressure.
The crisis echoes the instability that plagued France before the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958. The June 2024 snap elections left Parliament fractured, with no single bloc commanding a majority. The left-wing alliance holds the most seats, the far-right National Rally holds the most votes, and Macron’s centrists remain a weakened third force. This fragmentation has crippled legislative progress and made budget approvals particularly contentious.
Bayrou’s budget, which proposed freezing welfare spending and eliminating two public holidays, proved deeply unpopular. Opposition leaders, including National Rally’s Jordan Bardella, denounced the cuts as harmful to ordinary French citizens. “Bayrou has announced the end of his government,” Bardella declared, signalling the far-right’s refusal to cooperate.
The French deficit currently stands at 5.8 percent of GDP, nearly double the EU limit, with national debt projected to hit 125.3 percent of GDP without reforms. Bayrou’s plan to gradually reduce borrowing to below 3 percent by 2029 failed to convince legislators and sparked widespread public resistance. Demonstrations and union strikes are already planned for later this month, raising fears of renewed “yellow vest”-style unrest.
While Macron has ruled out resigning before his term ends in 2027, analysts warn that his room for manoeuvre is shrinking. “If he tries a similarly centrist approach, he risks losing even more credibility,” said Stefano Palombarini, economist at the University of Paris VIII, who suggested that Macron may need to seek compromises with the left to stabilise governance.
Yet with public dissatisfaction entrenched and opposition parties emboldened, France’s political paralysis shows no sign of easing. Investors and European partners are watching closely, concerned that prolonged deadlock could weigh on both the French economy and broader eurozone stability.
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