nisqually glacier response to climate change

H.Z. The climatic forcing comes from high-resolution climate ensemble projections from 29 combinations of global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) adjusted for mountain regions for three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: 2.6, 4.5, and 8.525. J. Glaciol. Res. Steiner, D., Walter, A. 1). "Such glaciers spawn icebergs into the ocean or lakes and have different dynamics from glaciers that end on land and melt at their front ends. J. Glaciol. Nature 577, 364369 (2020). Front. Nat. Many studies have investigated the effects of climate change on glacier runoff using observations or modelling, with a recent focus on High Mountain Asia 14,16,17 and the Andes 18,19,20.The degree . New methods bridging the gap between domain-specific equations and machine learning are starting to arise42, which will play a crucial role in further investigating the physical processes driving these nonlinear climate-glacier interactions. 4 vs.S5). Some of these models use a single DDF, while others have separate DDFs for snow and ice, producing a piecewise function composed of two linear sub-functions that can partially account for nonlinear MB dynamics depending on the snowpack. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Such ice caps cannot retreat to higher elevations in a warming climate, which inhibits this positive impact on MB40 (Fig. Salim, E., Ravanel, L., Deline, P. & Gauchon, C. A review of melting ice adaptation strategies in the glacier tourism context. Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016. Rev. Without these cold water resources during the hottest months of the year, many aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems will be impacted due to changes in runoff, water temperature or habitat humidity6,21,22. However, both the climate and glacier systems are known to react non-linearly, even to pre-processed forcings like PDDs13, implying that these models can only offer a linearized approximation of climate-glacier relationships. Nisqually Glacier in Mount Rainier National Park, Wash., covers 2.5 square miles (6.5 square kilometers) (1961) and extends from an altitude of about 14,300 feet (4,400 meters) near the top of Mount Rainier down to 4,700 feet (1,400 meters), in a horizontal distance of 4.1 miles (6.6 kilometers). 0.5) than lower values typical from ice34. MB rates only begin to approach equilibrium towards the end of the century under RCP 2.6, for which glaciers could potentially stabilize with the climate in the first decades of the 22nd century depending on their response time (Fig. 4 ). 5). The scheme simulates the mass balance as well as changes of the areal . The position of the front of the wave will be defined as the transverse line across the glacier where the flow of . J. Hosp. Nisqually Glacier - glaciers.pdx.edu (Photograph by Klaus J. Bayr, Keene State College, 1990) One method of measuring glaciers is to send researchers onto the ice with . New research suggests that climate change-induced melting of the Nisqually Glacier near Seattle, Wash., and other high-elevation glaciers will offset seasonal declines in streamflow until. Across the globe, glaciers are decreasing in volume and number in response to climate change. Predicting future glacier evolution is of paramount importance in order to correctly anticipate and mitigate the resulting environmental and social impacts. Explore awards | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.. This behaviour has already been observed for the European Alps, with a reduction in DDFs for snow during the ablation season of 7% per decade34. Smiatek, G., Kunstmann, H. & Senatore, A. EURO-CORDEX regional climate model analysis for the Greater Alpine Region: performance and expected future change: climate change in the gar area. Gabbi, J., Carenzo, M., Pellicciotti, F., Bauder, A. CPDD, winter snowfall or summer snowfall) was modified for all glaciers and years. S1a). 3b). Conversely, the linear MB model appears to be over-sensitive to extreme positive and negative snowfall anomalies. A NASA-led, international study finds Asia's high mountain glaciers are flowing more slowly in response to widespread ice loss, affecting freshwater availability downstream in India, Pakistan and China. A physically-based method for mapping glacial debris-cover thickness from ASTER satellite imagery: development and testing at Miage Glacier, Italian Alps Discovery - the University of Dundee Research Portal 51, 573587 (2005). Nonlinear sensitivity of glacier mass balance to future climate change unveiled by deep learning, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28033-0. Interestingly, this matches the nonlinear, less sensitive response to summer snowfall in the ablation season of our deep learning model (Fig. Photographs taken by Simo Rsnen (Bossons glacier, European Alps, CC BY-SA 3.0) and Doug Hardy (Quelccaya ice cap, Andes, CC BY-SA 4.0). Monitoring the Seasonal hydrology of alpine wetlands in response to snow cover dynamics and summer climate: a novel approach with sentinel-2. A similar trend is under way. Glob. longwave radiation budget, turbulent fluxes), in comparison with a future warmer climate. 60, 11401154 (2014). The Elements of Statistical Learning. S6). These synthetic experiments suggest that, for equal climatic conditions, flatter glaciers and ice caps will experience substantially more negative MB rates than steeper mountain glaciers. J. Clim. Lett. 1960). Conversely, during the accumulation season, glaciers are mostly covered by snow, with a much higher albedo and a reduced role of shortwave radiation in the MB that will persist even under climate change. 4). All values correspond to ensemble means under RCP 4.5. In summary, the linear approximations used by the Lasso manage to correctly fit the main cluster of average values but perform poorly for extreme values31. Together with recent findings by another study41 highlighting the increased uncertainties in ice thickness distribution estimates of ice caps compared to mountain glaciers, our results raise further awareness on the important uncertainties in glacier projections for ice caps. Fundam. energy balance), with differences increasing when the conditions considerably differ from the calibration period33. For these 32 glaciers, a total of 1048 annual glacier-wide MB values are available, covering the 19672015 period with gaps. Our results also highlight the important role played by glacier geometry adjustment under changing climatic conditions, which is typical of mountain glaciers38. The main reason for their success comes from their suitability to large-scale studies with a low density of observations, in some cases displaying an even better performance than more complex models12. Sci. J. Glaciol. The performance of this parametrization was validated in a previous study, indicating a correct agreement with observations31. Since these flatter glaciers are more likely to go through extreme negative MB rates, nonlinear responses to future warming play a more important role, producing cumulative MB differences of up to 20% by the end of the century (Fig. Nonetheless, to represent the glacier mass balance, the vast majority of large-scale glacier evolution models relies on temperature-index models. As Arctic warms, Canada's glaciers playing major role in sea - CBC Summer melt was also above average. Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. For small perturbations, the response time of a glacier to a perturbation in mass balance can be estimated by dividing the maximum thickness of the glacier by the balance rate at the terminus. ArXiv200104385 Cs Math Q-Bio Stat (2020). P. Kennard, J. The temperature-index model includes up to three different DDFs, for ice, firn and snow, resulting in three parameters. Climate change spells disaster for the world's glaciers : NPR contributed to the extraction of nonlinear mass balance responses and to the statistical analysis. By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. Paul, F., Kb, A., Maisch, M., Kellenberger, T. & Haeberli, W. Rapid disintegration of Alpine glaciers observed with satellite data: disintegration of alpine glaciers. Water resources provided by glaciers sustain around 10% of the worlds population living near mountains and the contiguous plains4, depending on them for agriculture, hydropower generation5, industry or domestic use. 47 (2020). These are among the cascading effects linked to glacier loss which impact ecosystems and . Relatively minor climate changes during the Little Ice Age (A.D. 1200-1850) impart significant glacial responses. Millan, R., Mouginot, J., Rabatel, A., & Morlighem, M. Ice velocity and thickness of the worlds glaciers. This parametrization reproduces in an empirical manner the changes in glacier geometry due to the combined effects of ice dynamics and MB. Consequently, a simple MB model with a single DDF (e.g. Ioffe, S. & Szegedy, C. Batch Normalization: Accelerating Deep Network Training by Reducing Internal Covariate Shift (2015). ISSN 2041-1723 (online). Ecol. With this setup, we reproduced the ice cap-like behaviour with a lack of topographical adjustment to higher elevations. Jordi Bolibar. The vast majority of glaciers in the French Alps are very small glaciers (<0.01km2), that are mainly remnants from the Little Ice Age, with a strong imbalance with the current climate15. Paul, F. et al. In that study, a temperature-index model with a separate degree-day factor (DDF) for snow and ice is used, resulting in piecewise linear functions able to partially reproduce nonlinear MB dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-821575-3.00009-8. We reduced these differences by running simulations with GloGEMflow using exactly the same 29 climate members used by ALPGM in this study (TableS1). The largest snow depths measured this spring exceeded 10 meters on Nisqually Glacier and 7 meters on Emmons. Analysis of a 24-Year photographic record of Nisqually glacier, Mount 21, 229246 (2021). The effect of glaciers shrinking to smaller extents is not captured by these synthetic experiments, but this effect is less important for flat glaciers that are dominated by thinning (Fig. Tom R. Andersson, J. Scott Hosking, Emily Shuckburgh, Shfaqat A. Khan, Anders A. Bjrk, Toni Schenk, Romain Hugonnet, Robert McNabb, Andreas Kb, Atanu Bhattacharya, Tobias Bolch, Tandong Yao, Christian Sommer, Philipp Malz, Matthias H. Braun, Romain Millan, Jrmie Mouginot, Mathieu Morlighem, Matthias H. Braun, Philipp Malz, Thorsten C. Seehaus, Nature Communications Deep learning applied to glacier evolution modelling. 4e and 5). This work was funded by the Labex OSUG@2020 (Investissements davenir, ANR10 LABX56) and the Auvergne-Rhne-Alpes region through the BERGER project. Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning, Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016, Two decades of glacier mass loss along the Andes, Centennial response of Greenlands three largest outlet glaciers, Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century, High Mountain Asian glacier response to climate revealed by multi-temporal satellite observations since the 1960s, Rapid glacier retreat and downwasting throughout the European Alps in the early 21st century, Ice velocity and thickness of the worlds glaciers, Constraining glacier elevation and mass changes in South America, https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2020/EGU2020-20908.html, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20908, https://doi.org/10.18750/MASSBALANCE.2019.R2019, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-821575-3.00009-8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00885-z, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, Unabated wastage of the Muz Taw Glacier in the Sawir Mountains during 19592021. The high spatial resolution enables a detailed representation of mountain weather patterns, which are often undermined by coarser resolution climate datasets. Swiss glaciers have displayed less negative MB rates than French glaciers during the last decades, thus likely introducing a bias in simulations specific to the French Alps. The rest of the story appears to lie primarily in the unique dynamic response of the region's glaciers to climate change. Pellicciotti, F. et al. (Springer, New York, 2009). Activity 13.3 Nisqually Glacier Response to Climate Change Course/Section Date: Name: Nisqually Glacier is a mountain glacier located on the south side of Mt. Huss, M., Jouvet, G., Farinotti, D. & Bauder, A. The Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) v1.1. Nisqually Glacier | glacier, Washington, United States By unravelling nonlinear relationships between climate and glacier MB, we have demonstrated the limitations of linear statistical MB models to represent extreme MB rates in long-term projections. Nisqually Glacier - Wikipedia Since these two glaciers are expected to be some of the few large glaciers that will survive the 21st century climate, an accurate representation of their initial ice thickness has an important effect on the estimates of remaining ice. J. Geophys. 3). Therefore, we were capable of isolating the different behaviours of the nonlinear deep learning model and a linear machine learning model based on the Lasso30. A consensus estimate for the ice thickness distribution of all glaciers on Earth. However, as shown in our previous work and confirmed here, the accuracy of linear models drastically drops as soon as the input climate data diverges from the mean cluster of values used for training.

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